Election Prediction
I started this campaign by being positive and I'm ending it being positive. I am not right yet, but I'm looking better with each passing day. My brother Tim was a little worried about a Conservative win because it would mean I was right all along. That remains to be seen. And so we shall see. Here, though, are my predictions, in all their optimism:
Conservatives: 157
Liberals: 64
NDP: 32
Bloc: 55
I would also like to clear one thing up. Living in the USA, many people equate Republicanism with Christianity. In seminary, however, many equate Democratism with Christianity. Both are wrong... (but I think more Democrats know it than Republicans; hence, my more secure friendships with Democrats.) Anyway... This election I am not supporting the Conservatives because I am a Christian. I am supporting the Consevatives because I am a Canadian. It does not take explicit Christian faith to hate corruption and elitism. It only takes the fresh air found when one's head is not buried between one's own butt cheeks.
What are you predictions?
Conservatives: 157
Liberals: 64
NDP: 32
Bloc: 55
I would also like to clear one thing up. Living in the USA, many people equate Republicanism with Christianity. In seminary, however, many equate Democratism with Christianity. Both are wrong... (but I think more Democrats know it than Republicans; hence, my more secure friendships with Democrats.) Anyway... This election I am not supporting the Conservatives because I am a Christian. I am supporting the Consevatives because I am a Canadian. It does not take explicit Christian faith to hate corruption and elitism. It only takes the fresh air found when one's head is not buried between one's own butt cheeks.
What are you predictions?
posted by Aaron Perry at
1:00 PM
15 Comments:
I predict the liberals for 2 reasons:
1. I like to predict the worst case scenario b/c then if I'm wrong I'm pleasently surprised instead of just satisfied...and if I'm right at least I can say I was right.
2. In the US, at least, the tie almost always goes to the incumbents b/c people are reluctant to change and last I heard, the polls were pretty close.
polls have the tories at a steady 10 point lead nationally, and still the favoured party in almost all ontario, winning seats in quebec. i like them odds.
hmmm. well, i don't know much, but blogger "Kate" seems to be hopeful for the conservative party: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/4622030.stm#kate
I'm sure your brother wouldn't mind you being right in this case.
BTW, according to Harper, Canadians don't hate anything, until it comes to hockey.
I love that guy!
AP, as you know from the debates "their is a viable 3rd option". What do you think about it?
the NDP? i think they think too highly of gov't, propped up a corrupt gov't last year, and spend too much (the 1980 PCs did that too). however, i think they care for people, are passionate, and refused to play the Liberal Party's whipping boy this election. kudos to layton for not playing the everybody against harper game martin wanted everyone to.
Oh AP....I hope you are a prophet. I need the red tainted skies to return to blue. May all that is Liberal be kicked in the balls and may the Tories rise and take their rightful place. Years of taking it up the back passage may pass....I dream of better days and tonight....we may put these nightmares to rest and wake in the calm of reason!
I was impressed by the cuteness of a couple of your female politicians
Well Aaron, I watched the updates tonight on the cbc. Congratulations. I know we have our differences in political thought but I do hope this change means a cleaner run government at least (but maybe it's good that you didn't get the majority government you were predicting, just to keep everyone on their toes).
Typically everyone doesn't get it anyways.
One thing that I am concerned about is their stance on the enviornment, but I won't say much because I don't know much about it.
(Also, can you explain to this American the NDP)
Tim
Also, it is very confusing when talking about red and blue, and having the blue be conservative. I got confused a couple times.
paul: but brison and stronach now sit as losers. pure and utter losers.
tim: i am frustrated at your comments. here's why: majority gov'ts are not bad things. it's the scare tactics of the paul martin that makes people think that. also, re: environment: see the link from my post "environmental conservatives"? do you know who has one of the worst financial track records in the last decade for environment? Canada. part of harper's platform was to make mandatory an increase in the amount of biodiesel contained in gasoline. the Conservative party was against Kyoto for a couple of reasons: 1. the Liberals never did anything with it. to accept and promote a plan, but not abide by it is lying. 2. a plan made to increase environmental controls for Canada has to be made in Canada. hence, the increase in biodiesel made from waste from many farmer's crops. again, a home-made solution that works for the nation. that's the environment policy put forth by the Tories. i'd bet that if you were Canadian, you'd be Conservative. i guarantee. (reading American lefties' take on the Canadian right shows why journalism has become a pathetic occupation. the American lefties have no idea about Canadian politics.)
Canada has failed me...how can they give the Liberals over 100 seats? There must be something in our water that makes us retarded! Instead of trucks....I'm pushing that we all have to ride around on short buses and wear helmets! Steven has a hard job ahead but I know he is up to the challenge!
AP,
Congratulations on the Conservative win...just saw it on the web. Not as big a win as you would have liked I know, but even a field goal in overtime is a win.
John
well Aaron, I have to admit that everything I said was to be congratulatory. The comment about a minority government was tongue in cheek. (Although, not so tongue in cheek would be my desire for people not to supercede dialogue which could be a positive outcome of not absolute majority, I really am not affected by the scare tactics of Paul Martin [although in the states we have regularly issued scares of our own, but that of course is my bias], I was just trying to look on the positive side of people being forced to work together, as long as they don’t call for a new election as soon as bill won’t get through.) My comments on the environment were qualified by "I don't know much about it (the Canadian situation)." My main understanding of ethanol incorporation into fuel supply is that it is no where near sustainable for any drastic effect, but that is on American figures, and it is certainly a positive thing (of course I am in favor of it, and I am much less concerned about Canadian environmental issues than I am of American environmental issues, not because I’m ethnocentric or whatever the proper terminology would be, but just because of the sheer magnitude of the American affect on the environment. I would maybe be concerned about China to that extent too). As far as the Kyoto agreement, I understand the need for national authority over emissions standards. (On the American side, I get frustrated that they point out the negatives to the treaty and then just ignore the need for emissions standards. Actually, the emissions standards have been loosened. There are some cosmetic strictures but they are far outweighed by de-regulation. I’m sure many people will disagree with me there) So if the Conservative Party in Canada can address the problems with Kyoto agreement with a constructive answer that doesn't just appear on the surface like they're doing something about it fine. And I’m not sure I should have even talked about this stuff on your blog, considering from this post what seems to be a bastion of conservatives. I’m not sure I would be Conservative though. Keep in mind I’m neither Democrat nor Republican in the states either (I certainly am neither conservative nor liberal). I wouldn’t be in the liberal party. Additionally I’m not as much for government deregulation as you would think (we’ve had that discussion before).
Aaron, I’m kind of frustrated that you didn’t look upon my comments as light-hearted as they were intended and still think were written. I’m also frustrated that you didn’t answer my question about the New Democrats.
Well I probably shouldn’t have commented too much as I did, I wasn’t looking for a political debate, and I probably am instigating more than it was due. Oh well.
Tim
hey tim. re-reading my comments makes me see them as more pejorative than they were intended. my frustration should not have been with your comments, but with Canadians who voted Liberal for the reasons you cited (which, as you correctly point out, mean different things for you than they are for them). sorry about that.
to clarify one thing: you are more than welcome to talk about such things on this "bastion of Conservatives"! :) (you have to admit...that is a pretty funny description!) one of the policies that i supported of the NDP was their emphasis on wind-power. i thought (and think) this idea has potential for Canadian leadership on a world-wide scale.
re: NDP: left wing party which claims it is working for ordinary families. known for its compassion for the poor although its leadership (like many political parties) is increasingly wealthy. heavy supporter of "progessive" policies. drove the province of Ontario into heavy debt with their provincial gov't under Bob Rae. I question their enthusiasm for regulation and gov't; I respect their acitivism. A high school prof of mine is an NDP and Christian and I really like him.
hope this clears things up.
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home