Is Kinsella right or wrong?

Warren Kinsella is a smart guy. After the Ontario Libs won a massive majority this past week, he wrote this on his blog:

"October 10, 2007 - What does Tory's defeat mean? What does the Tories massive defeat mean?

It means a certain guy at 24 Sussex has to be re-evaluating an election for Fall 2007.

My guess? He won't do it."

There are four ways to think about Kinsella's prediction:
1. Kinsella is right (no federal election) for the right reason (Harper has taken notice of Ont. Lib. favour).
2. Kinsella is right (no federal election) for the wrong reason (Harper realizes other parties won't bring him down and can continue governing).
3. Kinsella is wrong (there is a federal election) for the right reason.
4. Kinsella is wrong (there is a federal election) for the wrong reason.

The first two are straight forward. The second two require a little more unpacking. I don't think Kinsella really thinks the Ontario election will play any part. He knows Harper plays his own drum and is hoping that in his small way, Kinsella himself can delay a federal election. This would be option #3: Kinsella is wrong in his prediction, but has correctly read Harper. This, of course, is a switch in reasoning from option 1. Kinsella could also be wrong and there is a federal election, but has just underestimated the political fortitude of Harper. I highly doubt this is the case. Kinsella is too smart. Honestly, does he think Stephen Harper is at all afraid of going head to head with Stephane Dion in a debate? Does he not realize the swing votes that the Liberals got will be very comfortable voting for a conservative politician with such genuine appeal and leadership ability as Harper?

My guess is that Kinsella sees that such a devastating win for the Liberals in Ontario only bolsters the appeal of a federal Conservative Party under strong leadership.